For a variety of reasons, companies can sometimes become disconnected from their visionary founder. Rarer still, a few companies manage to reconnect with that same founder following a hiatus. Think of Steve Job’s return to head Apple after being fired in 1985. While there are far more differences than similarities between Apple/Jobs and Twitter/Dorsey, I believe the stars are nonetheless aligning to produce perhaps an equally watershed and triumphant return for the Twitter founder. I see the makings of a masterstroke.
I believe that Twitter will (should) acquire Square, Jack Dorsey’s social payments start-up, forming a combined company that I’ll call TSquared. I’m going on the record as stating that TSquared would go on to create greater enterprise value than Facebook. Why is TSquared likely to happen?
1. Fixing the Cap Table. Jack created one of the web’s most important companies in Twitter. Yet, unlike his peers Zuckerberg (Facebook), Pincus (Zynga), Mason (Groupon), he’s not Twitter’s largest shareholder. No matter how you cut it, that can’t feel awesome. Further, it was likely a cause of some of the leadership carousel within Twitter’s executive team over the years. But, as Steve Jobs attests, leaving a company you founded might ultimately be a good thing (if you learn a lot and go on to found NeXT/acquire Pixar or found Square). Acquiring Square would in all likelihood propel Jack back into the position of largest single shareholder in Twitter.
Less than a year after launch, Square reportedly processes greater than $1M in payments per day which implyies a revenue run rate exceeding $20 million per year. I understand that revenue is growing by more than 35% per month, driven in large part by an exploding merchant base exceeding 100,000 new merchant sign-ups per quarter. In January of this year, Square closed a round of funding valuing the company at a reported $240 million. All of these indications point to Square being valued at $500 million – $1 Billion by the close of 2011. Twitter is presently valued at $3.7 billion (per its last financing) and over $5B in the private markets. Twitter’s acquisition of Square at these valuation ranges would rectify the Twitter cap table problems for Jack.
2. Mobile + Local + Social + Commerce. While addressing the cap table issues would appear to be of personal importance to Jack, Twitter and Square investors wouldn’t support such a deal if it didn’t make strategic sense for both businesses. TSquared would revolutionize the social networking space, eventually overtaking Facebook’s dominant social networking revenue position, supplanting the likes of Paypal and outruning the horde of local and social deal companies in the process. Why?
Twitter’s mostly open interest / discovery graph is arguably the web’s most powerful. Twitter is largely dominant at the rare combination of mobile, social and local. While Facebook is further along in several categories (users, revenue) Twitter is much more mature on the five key building blocks for web’s next revolution: Open user content, Discovery, Mobile, Local and Social (I’ll coin that ‘ODMLS’). Connecting Twitter’s ODMLS graph with Square’s expanding graph of local merchants, products, inventory and purchasing habits will allow TSquared to compete (read: dominate) the web’s most important and lucrative emerging consumer business sectors. Consider an example use case:
- Today: Let’s say you want a coupon or discount to local merchant. You’ll likely visit one of the horde of local deal or coupon sites. Then you’ll buy the deal by entering your CC or Paypal. Share the deal with your friends on Twitter or FB to help get enough people to buy and trigger the sale. When you get to the local merchant, sometimes you’ll check-in (Foursquare or FB etc.) then redeem your coupon. Did you have a great time? If you did, you’ll probably use Twitter or FB to tell your friends.
- TSquared: After entering your payment information in TSquared one time, when you want a coupon or discount to a local merchant, what will you do? The entire local deal process described above: promotion, coupon redemption, checkin, purchase and sharing would be reduced to a couple of clicks inside a single mobile application. Mind you, the use case described above powers Groupon, Gilt and hundreds of other deal companies, but those companies don’t control much besides distribution lists. With TSquared, when you want a discount, a location based Tweet will act as combination checkin/coupon/promotion.
There’s not really any technical reason that users couldn’t “pay by tweet”. Your favorite restaurant promotes a deal with the following Tweet, “Get #40%offdinner @burgerjoint today”. If a user retweets that message and has a CC or bank account connected to TSquared, they just bought a deal. Tweeting URL shortened #couponcode to @merchant simply charges your card or bank account. TSquared sets up local deal watch accounts that users who want deals can simply follow. Because merchants can load Square with inventory and pricing means that the combined company will inevitably develop a material position (read: lead) in the local inventory category where Milo & Retailigence play today.
Ponder those things for a moment. Square knows what local merchants have in their inventories (supply) coupled with Twitter’s massive graph of people indicating their visits to, interest in, demand for and purchases of brands, stores and products (demand). This combination holds the promise of disrupting many businesses that live and thrive on a businesses’ inability to forecast demand (Groupon + Gilt Groupe). Square is presently growing local merchant sign ups at a rate exceeding 100,000 per quarter. I won’t even venture to guess the number of brands, retailers and local businesses already using Twitter. If TSquared gives businesses better ability to promote product and services and forecast local demand for products and service, then surplus supply is inevitably reduced. If a retailer doesn’t have too many shoes for a given market, then there’d be no shoes to put on sale for 50% off later. By knowing who wants what, from where and when coupled with knowledge of which retailer has what item, where and at what price is the holy grail of local commerce.
Simply stated: Twitter knows who wants it, Square knows who has it. Together, TSquared will own the transaction and disintermediate all of the companies currently making billions off of this friction. TSquared will, for these reasons, catch and surpass Facebook’s revenue and enterprise value. Facebook is basing their long-term growth strategy on payments, not ads. 500 million+ users were only generating about $1 billion in ad revenues as recent as 6 months ago. Facebook hopes to own your identity and payments, but iTunes / Paypal maintain a massive blocking effect against Facebook on payments for web services.
TSquared has a clear path to dominate local merchant payments, leaving Facebook with minimal room to maneuver blocked by Apple, Paypal and TSquared. After all, what are FB users going to buy? Why give FB your credit card when FB doesn’t have online inventory or local merchandise, FB hasn’t licensed any digital content for you to download either. Facebook is trying to form a ‘beach head’ with OAuth sign-ups, but all OAuth end points ultimately have the same capability. I should probably give separate consideration in a future post to the possible (likely) introduction of NFC chips in mobile devices and the effect it would have on these predictions, but for now, let’s stay on this core thesis. TSquared would cause a precipitous slowdown in Facebook’s revenue growth in the payments category, forcing FB to rely more heavily on display ads. Facebook, like AOL and Myspace before it, will founder if it relies largely on advertising to monetize.
3. Twitter stand-alone. Let’s face it, Twitter’s revenue model is not hitting the hockey stick on a stand-alone basis. The data is there to build a big business, but the company likely can’t go public right now without strong revenue growth. Wall street would not be kind to the company’s stock price. If revenue growth was strong, would there have ever been a Dickbar? What’s the big idea for Twitter monetization in the absence of payments? Promoted Tweets? Throngs of users must be clamoring to follow Internet Explorer on Twitter, right? Wrong. These ideas cannot power the revenues necessary for a multi-billion dollar business.
I believe that we’re witnessing what may come to be remembered as the web generation’s equivalent of Job’s return to Apple. Whether or not TSquared sells to a Google, clearly desperate for a new revenue driver and with a massive war chest would be an open question. An early sale would, of course, negate TSquare’s chance to become a global behemoth. It seems likely that Google, for many different reasons, would be all but forced to make a massive offer for TSquared and try to combine it with their Android + NCF plans. Whatever happens, it’s going to be great fun and I’m glad to have a front row seat.



